Survival

Bear markets are not the absence of opportunity — they are the absence of forgiveness. Every mistake costs more. Slippage is worse. Liquidity is thinner. The setups that worked in a trending market fail silently in a ranging one.

Here is how we use the journal to navigate them.

Cut your size first

The single most important journal data point in a bear: position size. Most traders keep trading bull-market size in bear-market liquidity. The journal will reveal the damage within ten trades. If your average loss in the bear is 40% larger than in the bull, the problem is not your strategy — it is your sizing.

Re-validate every strategy

A breakout strategy that won 60% in a bull will win 30% in a bear. The setup looks identical on the chart; the regime changed. Your journal is the only thing that will catch this in time — before the drawdown is already deep.

Track regime, not just trades

Add a field to every journal entry: market regime. Bull, bear, ranging. After 30 trades, filter by regime. The strategies that survive will surprise you. The ones that do not will be obvious — and expensive if you keep running them.